This note is an example of what our subscribers receive every single week. Unique perspectives on retail, direct from the shop floor by one of retail's authoritative voices. To subscribe, click below. The Sainsbury's results were strong last week, quarter 1 was a long old time, 16 weeks to 21st June meaning several key seasonal events were captured and reflected in the sales line. There's little to argue with in terms of the headline number; +5% on Grocery +4.9% group shows their core plan is working and the added space by converting "backwall" space (IE where the counters were) is also aiding sales by increasing range. We're grateful that they have finally excluded VAT from the overall sales number too, making those comparatives easier. Value is strong; I am sure they were matching "over 800" lines to Aldi but now its "around 800." Either way, that's academic and they're reaping the rewards of the price match. Their highest value for money score ever is great too, however the breadth of the price match will be impacting. Convenience sales were strong too and of course, this is where Aldi price match is active (and likely expensive). It's the only time that Sainsbury's have adopted a strategy that Tesco haven't moved first on.... Retail Media (everyone's favourite topic) remains the only point of concern for me when walking stores. They have a lot of it; we all understand the importance of loyalty, data, Nectar360, Pollen and the rest of it. It's a brave new world! At its most basic level. Sainsbury's colour is Orange, that is the heritage colour. However, Nectar is Purple, which immediately becomes a bit of a mixed message at its most extreme. Whilst Sainsbury's are working hard on low prices, there are an increasing number of deals around the store. Whilst these are all linked to loyalty (thus are good?) for me, it's representative of the chain moving away from an EDLP focus. Sure, 800 items are on Aldi price match but one can't afford to go to Sainsbury's looking for promotions alone. There are other challenges; IE why is the value tier line lower price than the core, which is then on Aldi price match? Nectar prices are strong but the overall value mission should be focused on EDLP (every day low prices) rather than purely deals and the 800 (or so) lines are then matched up to Aldi. There are areas where Sainsbury's can't afford to be caught out, especially on comparable brands that are not matched. Tesco don't officially match Aldi on Diet Coke 2l, but both retailers are at £2.15 today (up from £1.99 a few weeks ago). Whereas Sainsbury's are at £2.55. Unjustifiable and they must be careful in this arena to not be caught out there, as their work on the 800+ lines is lost if they're out of line on Diet Coke. Sainsbury's are at risk of turning over their own brand and message in favour of brands paying money to display their own wares in aisle, with the growth in retail media. Part of this is FOMO of course (fear of missing out) and one can only look at LinkedIn and see that many suppliers are throwing their dollars in to store based displays. Then their rivals want to do the same and it becomes an arms race. That signage is driving awareness (so goes the theory) and thus the brands feel that theirs will win. However, no one operates in a vacuum and what appears to be constantly missed is that other brands are doing the same. Thus you get an avalanche of branded signage, the customers don't really want to see it and the message is then lost. Cluttering the shopping experience is not favoured by anyone. No one takes a step back and says "hold on" it's going a bit far. Only Tesco are (seemingly) able to hold the line and maintain their brand and principles versus the retail media cash prize. The reason Retail Media exists is because of the money available; retailers are bringing in all manner of branded signage, aisle takeovers and the rest of it, because suppliers are paying handsomely to do so. Some of the signage today, ends, on shelf work etc simply would not even carry a promotional sign in the old days. But today? Poor deals and non relevant products are amplified with signage. Retail Media is then turbo charged by loyalty data and the brave new "retail media world" - particularly in that retailers can "own" the framework and retain more of the revenue for themselves. It appeals. There is no doubt there's a lot of scope. However, the risk is that retailers, with their shiny new media teams, end up becoming real estate companies that happen to sell food. We saw this with Asda pre Allan Leighton returning, their stores were overrun with branded signage which meant Asda's own message was lost entirely. The money is good, its guaranteed (no need to commit to volume based rebates - IE we'll sell x) and it's relatively easy. When you're chasing sales numbers and it's a tough market with NI/minimum wage rises and other costs..... This stuff appeals. Despite the avalanche of retail media; there's evidence of the strong work across the store in terms of ranging and premium. Taste the Difference has been elevated nicely and there's a number of extensions in this space that stand out well, premium remains very important due to the margins. Alongside this - standards and availability are improved from their lows and they've broadly run far better shops than before. There's definitely a sense that their store standards are stronger (despite some obvious issues) and are more sustained which of course one reason why the sales are strong. However, Produce remains a huge opportunity. Sainsbury's is a retailer that's steeped in heritage, their focus on quality product remains at the heart of what they do. Simon Roberts has revived this mentality well in his time as CEO. Produce is very important. It's the first department that customers land on, and any good turnaround of any retailer has always put the focus squarely on strong value, standards and quality in this key category. However, all too often. The department isn't strong enough, fixtures are dirty and this often lets the store down. There's a lot going right for Sainsbury's - they are performing well and there's little argument with the sales numbers. That said, there are two retailers struggling (Morrisons/Asda) who are ripe for the picking. Even with Asda recovering; Sainsbury's will be largely insulated you would feel. The only danger for JS is retail media and how that has exploded in stores, there's a fine line between enough and too much. When you step over that line in to "too much" it then becomes hard to reduce it back down to "acceptable" levels. Mainly because it generates cash. The move to a bake off Bakery is also polarising for me. Whilst the technology for frozen bake off has come such a long way, it does (like anything) appear to be a trojan horse for hours cuts and then a poorer customer experience. Where freshness was guaranteed before with a scratch bakery; we are now in a realm where "Baked today" is a selling point(!?!?!) and there's a degree of sales prevention squad on the Bakery itself. Just how many sales are being missed here? This wouldn't happen with a scratch operation as you had to have people around to clean the kit, close down counters correctly and carry out all the food safety work on a late night. But on a morning too. You would have had a steady flow of product coming through from the ovens which leant itself to freshness and quality. You were able to drive sales if the weather was warm, too. I am biased; having cut my teeth in a Bakery (many moons ago) for Sainsbury's. A bake off operation appears to be ending up in a negative customer experience, which isn't how it should be. You still need people around, you still need to be merchandising and replenishing the shelves, driving sales forward. However, recent visits have left me feeling as though they've almost given up on the Bakery. Perhaps that isn't the case, but the images don't lie. Once a retailer states its intention to disband counters, Cafe's and the rest of it. The focus naturally goes in to other areas, it's a consequence of actions in retail, unfortunately. Sainsbury's need to continue to focus on value, on Aldi price match, on the wider shopping experience, but also ensure that key areas like Produce and Bakery continue to be a "halo" for the chain. That halo must be centred on product, quality, freshness, availability and strong retailing standards. It isn't as much about the kit or the lighting above said category.... It's about the product, the quality, the standards and the general point of difference...... |
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